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Tuesday, 17 January 2017

Theresa May’s Brexit speech – and where the YES parties and movement are at now …

I won’t offer anything new on this at the moment because there’s little new to say. We are at exactly the point I said we’d come to in this October 2016 blog and what I think we must do is in the subsequent January 2017 blog.

This evening may bring a statement from SNP. We must wait …

October 2016 extract

BREXITS – HARD AND SOFT

As I said in my last blog, we are being taken out of EU against our will, regardless of any deal on  terms of exit, yet the SNP Manifesto for the 2016 Holyrood election specified that as an #indyref2 trigger.

Theresa May " .it will be the UK that will be negotiating with the EU our future relationship.."

Headline: "No 10 warned the devolved administrations not to “undermine” the UK Government’s Brexit strategy."

I ask “What ******* Brexit strategy?”

Can Scots endure much more progressive humiliation in the Brexit Talks? Will they? If they can, let's fold our tents and get awa' hame...

Theresa May is the Unionist's heroine -  and the woman Leave voters including Scottish Leave voters - and to me, incredibly, SNP Leave voters - gave more power to – power to drag UK to disaster and Scotland with it. Unless #indyref2 is called …

Are we just to continue to wait for Theresa's latest broadside on the dominance of UK?

FT yesterday "Britain must pursue a ‘hard Brexit’ to create a more open economy"

When does Theresa take Nicola into The Empire Room and astonish her with British power? (scene from stage and radio play All the Way to the Empire Room by TOM PAULIN)

The clawback of devolution and power from Scotland has effectively begun: we enter next stage - delay and progressive humiliation. Our willingness to cooperate is being thrown back in our face with reaffirmations of Union dominance over its Scottish province. We've been willing to listen, to talk,  to contribute positively. It's all been thrown back in our faces by Theresa May.

Canon Kenyon Wright at EICC 11th September 2014, one week before The Referendum: "it can be undermined at the whim of Westminster, at any time. Power devolved is power retained"

Iain Macwhirter nailed it in Wednesday’s HERALD. Some quotes from the eminently-quotable Iain, Scotland’s finest political journalist -

"Scotland’s Parliament is effectively diminished and made a “creature of Westminster

UK is a multinational state with devolution of legislative authority. You can’t behave as if UK were ..monolithic unit it was in 20th century

”There's an ugly mood in England over Brexit as lack of any plan becomes apparent and UK Gov resorts to ..lowest common denoimator of immigration.”

"I despair at this Brexit dialogue of the deaf…”

CODA

Nicola Sturgeon: “I won't allow Scotland to be driven over a hard Brexit cliff edge.”

Will Nicola return from the the Brexit Talks with the devolved Governments waving

“a piece of paper”?

or with a real breakthrough?

or to trigger #indyref2?

We must wait and see…


January 2017 blog

Tommy Sheppard’s Common Space piece, pre-Scottish Independence  Convention,  on energising independence movement - and my comment and views.  See link CommonSpace 

COMMENT

The independence movement certainly needs energising. In my perception - once I step outside of the indy press and online bubble - it's leaking energy by the day.

It may be that the only way to re-energise it is for SNP Govt/Greens to initiate the processes to call #indyref2, with the timing of the ballot and duration referendum after that at the discretion of SNP Govt/Greens, with ratification by the Holyrood Parliament.

While it would nice to have a short campaign, I doubt if that is possible because of legal hurdles and perhaps frontal challenges by the Westminster Government, and it is arguable that a campaign as long as that will allow us to get our core policies lined up with a core YES consensus, and that a campaign as long as that preceding the 2014 Referendum will provide all the energy and motivation needed for activists to really focus on shifting perceptions and poll.

I believe we have never been better placed to fight a successful independence campaign

- in UK Parliamentary and Holyrood terms

- with an experienced and battle- hardened YES

- with media (two newspapers)

- with a major looming issue and threat in Brexit

- and with an extreme right-wing and incompetent Tory Government caught up in desperate attempts to resource a chaotic negotiating strategy, and with wide European goodwill towards us.

As for polls, as in indyref1 - where we started from an infinitely lower base - it's our job to change them, and only a campaign after a starting gun has been fired - #indyref2 - and a named ballot date will do that.

Waiting for some illusory ideal time which will never exist is like waiting for Godot, and risks the fear of failure mood blunting the will to win. We are after all, an independence movement, and independence movements are not characterised by timidity or fear of failure. Let's do it!

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